Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are rapidly approaching their election confrontation on November 5, which is anticipated to be one of the most closely contested races in contemporary American history. With less than a week remaining before Election Day, the competition remains tight in several pivotal states that are shaping the 2024 election landscape, revealing minimal distinction between the two candidates. The United States Constitution mandates that each of the 50 states conduct its own presidential vote, and the intricate Electoral College system allocates a specific number of “electors” to each state based on its population. Most states employ a winner-take-all approach, granting all electors to the candidate who secures the popular vote. To achieve victory, candidates must obtain 270 out of the 538 electoral votes, making the outcome heavily reliant on the fiercely contested “swing states,” which have a history of fluctuating between Republican and Democratic candidates. This election cycle features seven such battlegrounds, each of which is currently considered a toss-up within the margin of error.
1. Pennsylvania, with 19 Electoral College votes, has shifted from a Democratic stronghold to a competitive battleground. In 2016, Trump won by 0.7 points, but Biden flipped the state in 2020, winning by 1.2 points. The state, home to 13 million residents and struggling with industrial decline, has seen both candidates campaign actively. Trump appeals to rural whites and raises concerns about migration, while Harris emphasizes infrastructure achievements and proposes a $100 billion investment in manufacturing.
2. Georgia, with 16 Electoral College votes, became a battleground during Trump’s presidency, especially after his attempts to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory led to an election interference indictment. Biden’s win was the first for a Democrat since 1992, and demographic changes may favor Harris, who has engaged with minority voters across the state.
3. North Carolina, also with 16 Electoral College votes, has leaned Democratic only once since 1980, but Harris is hopeful about its potential to swing back to her party.
4. Michigan, once a Democratic stronghold, shifted to Trump in 2016 but was reclaimed by Biden in 2020 with support from union and Black voters. However, Vice President Harris now risks losing the critical backing of the 200,000-strong Arab-American community due to the administration’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
5.Arizona, Biden won by just 10,457 votes in 2020, and Trump aims to regain support by highlighting dissatisfaction with Biden’s immigration policies. Harris visited the border in September, pledging to enhance enforcement and revive a bipartisan border bill.
6. Wisconsin saw Clinton’s 2016 campaign falter due to her lack of engagement, while Biden flipped a 23,000-vote deficit into a 21,000-vote victory in 2020. Trump views Wisconsin as competitive, having hosted his party’s summer convention there, and Harris has intensified the race.
7. Nevada, with a population of 3.1 million, hasn’t backed a Republican since 2004. Conservatives, encouraged by Trump’s appeal to Hispanic voters, believe they can change this. Trump initially led in the state, but Harris has since promoted economic initiatives to support small businesses and address inflation, narrowing the gap in Las Vegas.
