Canada’s population growth is beginning to slow as the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau implements reductions in immigration. However, the nation remains far from achieving its objective of significantly decreasing the number of temporary residents, which has reached unprecedented levels. According to Statistics Canada, approximately 250,000 individuals were added to the population in the three months leading up to July 1, resulting in a quarterly growth rate of 0.6%. This represents the first instance since 2020 in which quarterly growth has been slower than during the same period the previous year. Following the easing of pandemic-related travel restrictions, Canada experienced record population increases, having added over 2.35 million people since mid-2022, a figure comparable to the population of Houston. While the influx of immigrants has supported economic growth, rising housing costs and strains on public services have led to a significant decline in public support for immigration and for Trudeau himself, prompting the government to reconsider its approach to welcoming newcomers.Trudeau’s strategy for curbing immigration has primarily targeted temporary residents, which encompasses international students, foreign workers, and asylum seekers. The government’s initiatives seem to be gradually decelerating the expansion of this demographic, albeit at a very slow rate. In the second quarter, Canada recorded an addition of 118,000 temporary residents, marking the smallest net increase since the first quarter of 2023 and representing the third consecutive quarterly decline. Nevertheless, despite a reduction in the number of study permit holders contributing to the growth rate of temporary immigrants, the total count of temporary residents in Canada has surpassed 3 million for the first time. Consequently, this group now constitutes 7.3% of the population in the second quarter, reflecting a full percentage point increase since the government revealed its intention to reduce this proportion to 5% in the coming years.To achieve the desired target promptly, a reduction of 30% in the number of temporary residents within the country, equating to nearly one million individuals, would be necessary.
In July, the Bank of Canada revised its short-term population growth forecasts, indicating that the government’s strategy to curtail the influx of temporary residents would take longer than initially anticipated to impact immigration rates. However, as population increases are expected to stabilize closer to historical averages over the long term, economic growth is projected to weaken in the forthcoming years.In the second quarter, Canada’s annual population growth rate was recorded at 3%, a slight decrease from the 3.2% rate observed in the first quarter, yet it remains among the highest globally. With an addition of a quarter million residents during this period, the total population of Canada has reached 41.3 million. Although the pace of population growth appears to be slowing, it still surpasses any second quarter figures from the previous five decades prior to 2022. The majority of these population increases can be attributed to international migration, while the natural increase from births only marginally exceeded deaths by fewer than 10,000, underscoring the challenges posed by a rapidly aging demographic. For the third consecutive year, Canada experienced a slight decline in its median age, which reached 40.3 years as of July 1, while the average age remained unchanged compared to the previous year. This development stands in stark contrast to the long-term trend observed from 1967 to 2021, during which both the median and average ages consistently increased, underscoring the significant influence of elevated immigration levels in recent years.
